Faith Nyasuguta
A new study in The Lancet projects that President Trump’s drastic 83% cut to USAID foreign aid announced in early 2025 could result in over 14 million additional deaths by 2030, including 4.5 million deaths among children under five- approximately 700,000 child fatalities per year.
Analyzing data from 133 low- and middle-income countries, researchers note that USAID-funded programs prevented around 91 million deaths between 2001 and 2021 . These lifesaving interventions cut overall mortality by 15% and under-five deaths by 32%.
The most dramatic impacts were in infectious diseases: HIV/AIDS mortalities dropped by 74%, malaria by 53%, and neglected tropical disease deaths by 51% in countries receiving high levels of aid, compared to those with little or none.
One-year effects are already alarming- models predict 1.8 million extra deaths in 2025 alone, driven by halted antiretroviral therapy, bed nets, vaccines, and basic health services. The public health shock could rival a global pandemic or major armed conflict, say the researchers .
Cuts to USAID shut clinics, disrupted routine vaccination and limited access to clean water, nutrition, and maternal care. Experts warn systems painstakingly built over decades are at risk of collapsing. WHO and global health specialists stress that even slight budget contractions undermine health security and reverse decades of progress .
While the U.S. government argues the cuts eliminate “wasteful spending” and shift aid under the State Department, researchers see them as “conscious and avoidable policy choices” with dire consequences. Intervention programs such as PEPFAR face unprecedented disruption, fueling fears of HIV resurgence and stalled malaria prevention efforts.
The study urges reversal of cuts at the upcoming Financing for Development conference in Seville, reminding world leaders that local and global health security depends on sustained investment .
Each additional death represents a preventable tragedy, researchers emphasize. They point out that Americans contribute about 17 cents per day to USAID – a small price for vast humanitarian impact .
With lives at stake, the question remains: will the U.S. government restore funding in time to avert a global health crisis?
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