Wayne Lumbasi
The United States has warned Madagascar against deepening its military cooperation with Russia, expressing concern that the growing partnership could expand Russian influence across the Indian Ocean and create new security challenges in a strategically important maritime region.
The warning was delivered by Lieutenant General John Brennan, Deputy Commander of the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM), during a virtual press briefing on November 10, 2026, following his regional visit to Madagascar and Mozambique.
Brennan expressed concern that Russia was seeking to extend its military influence beyond the Sahel, where it has established security partnerships with military-led governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. He argued that the security arrangements promoted by Russia in West Africa could be replicated in other parts of the continent, potentially creating further instability.
He specifically identified Madagascar and Mozambique as strategically important countries where the United States did not want to see similar security arrangements take hold.
Madagascar’s growing relationship with Russia follows the military takeover in October 2025, when Colonel Michaël Randrianirina assumed power after President Andry Rajoelina fled the country following weeks of protests.
Since the change of government, Russia has increased its military engagement with the island nation, supplying military equipment, including drones, assault rifles and handguns. Russian military personnel associated with Africa Corps, the organisation that succeeded the Wagner Group’s operations in Africa, have also participated in training Malagasy forces.
In February 2026, Randrianirina travelled to Russia for talks with President Vladimir Putin. The visit marked the first time a Malagasy head of state had travelled to Russia since 1978.
The relationship has since expanded beyond defence, with both countries pursuing cooperation agreements covering trade, tourism and other areas.
US Raises Concerns Over Russia’s African Security Strategy
Brennan’s warning reflects growing American concern over Russia’s expanding military partnerships with African governments, particularly those that have distanced themselves from traditional Western security partners.
Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have strengthened their defence relationships with Russia following military coups and deteriorating relations with France.
However, despite increased Russian military involvement, jihadist violence has continued across parts of the Sahel, raising questions about the effectiveness of the security arrangements.
The United States is concerned that similar partnerships could give Russia greater strategic influence in other African countries while weakening existing Western security relationships.
Strategic Importance of The Indian Ocean
Madagascar’s geographical position is central to the growing international competition. The island lies along the Mozambique Channel, an important maritime corridor connecting shipping routes across the Indian Ocean.
The waterway is strategically important for international trade, energy transportation and regional security.
The United States is particularly concerned about the possibility of increased maritime insecurity, especially as Islamic State-linked militants continue operating in northern Mozambique.
Brennan warned that emerging maritime threats could endanger shipping and commercial activities along the East African coastline.
US Seeks Stronger Security Cooperation
During his November visit, Brennan’s delegation held discussions with Malagasy defence representatives and toured strategic maritime facilities, including the Antsiranana naval base. The discussions focused on maritime surveillance, military training, information-sharing and protecting international shipping routes.
The United States is seeking to strengthen its own security partnership with Madagascar as Russia expands its defence relationship with the island nation.
Madagascar now finds itself in an increasingly sensitive geopolitical position, with competing international powers seeking stronger influence over its military partnerships and strategic maritime location.
For the Malagasy government, the challenge will be balancing international cooperation with national sovereignty while avoiding deeper involvement in the growing rivalry between global powers.
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