Wayne Lumbasi
Seven Ethiopian armed and opposition groups have announced a new alliance aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and establishing an inclusive transitional administration, bringing together rival movements from several regions of the country.
The coalition, known as the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, or the Alliance for Survival, was announced on September 20, 2026. Its members include the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara FanoNational Movement, Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, BenishangulPeoples’ Liberation Movement and Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement.
The groups say they intend to work together to remove the federal government and create a transitional political administration. TPLF Vice President Amanuel Assefa said the groups had been communicating for more than a year before formally establishing the alliance. Amhara Fano leader Zemene Kasse is expected to chair the new coalition.
The announcement is significant because some of the groups now cooperating previously fought on opposite sides of Ethiopia’s most devastating recent conflict. The TPLF fought federal forces during the two year Tigray war that began in November 2020, while Fano forces fought alongside the Ethiopian government during much of that conflict.
The war ended with the Pretoria Agreement in November 2022, which halted the major fighting between the federal government and the TPLF. The agreement provided for the disarmament and demobilisation of Tigrayan forces and a political process to resolve outstanding issues. However, tensions between the federal government and the TPLF have continued, while disputes over territory and the implementation of the peace agreement remain unresolved.
Fano subsequently became an armed opponent of the federal government. The group took up arms in Amhara in 2023 after the government moved to dismantle and disarm regional special forces. Fighting between federal forces and Fano has since continued in parts of the region.
The Oromo Liberation Army has also been engaged in a long running armed conflict with the Ethiopian government in Oromia. The government has designated the OLA a terrorist organisation, while the group has rejected the government’s approach to the conflict. The addition of the OLA means the new coalition brings together major armed movements operating in three of Ethiopia’s most politically significant regions: Tigray, Amhara and Oromia.
The alliance also extends beyond those three regions. The ONLF is associated with Ethiopia’s Somali region, while the other participating movements are linked to Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz. Together, the seven groups represent armed or opposition movements operating across a broad geographical area of the country.
The announcement comes as security tensions are again rising in northern Ethiopia. The African Union has reported that government and Tigrayan forces have massed troops around Tigray in recent months, increasing concern that the region could again become the centre of a major armed confrontation. The previous Tigray war killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced millions, according to international reporting.
The new alliance also faces substantial challenges. Its members have different political objectives, operate in geographically separated areas and have previously fought one another. One of the most sensitive disputes concerns Western Tigray, which has been contested by Tigray and Amhara forces. The question of who should control the territory remains unresolved.
TPLF spokesman Michael Asgedom said the alliance’s cooperation is both political and military and that joint military operations could become necessary to achieve its objective. He also argued that the 2022 peace agreement had effectively lost its validity. Those statements represent the TPLF’s position and have not been accepted as a settled legal or political fact.
The Ethiopian government had not publicly responded to the announcement in the initial reports. The Ethiopian Media Authority, however, said Tigray TV, which carried the announcement, was an illegal entity and accused it of promoting insurgency.
The development comes only months after Ethiopia’s June 2026 general election, in which Abiy’s Prosperity Party retained a large parliamentary majority. Major opposition groups boycotted the election, while Tigray did not participate. The election took place amid continuing armed conflicts in Amhara and Oromia and renewed tensions in Tigray.
The immediate question is whether the seven groups can turn their political agreement into sustained coordination on the ground. The alliance brings together forces with significant experience in armed conflict, but their different political interests, past clashes and territorial disputes could make unified military and political action difficult.
For Ethiopia, the formation of the Alliance for Survival adds another layer to an already fragmented security environment. If the coalition develops effective coordination across its different areas of operation, it could alter the dynamics of the conflicts in Amhara, Oromia and Tigray. If its members fail to overcome their longstanding differences, however, the alliance could remain primarily a political arrangement rather than a unified fighting force. The extent of that cooperation is not yet clear.
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