Wayne Lumbasi
Eritrea and Ethiopia are edging closer to war as rising tension, military build ups, and diplomatic hostilities threaten to plunge the Horn of Africa into another period of instability. The two neighbours, once bitter rivals in a border war that claimed more than 70,000 lives between 1998 and 2000, are now facing renewed confrontation that could undo years of fragile peace.
The latest standoff has its roots in the peace agreement signed in Pretoria in 2022 between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. Although the accord ended two years of fighting in northern Ethiopia, Eritrea was not included, despite its heavy involvement during the conflict. Officials in Asmara saw the exclusion as a deliberate move that weakened Eritrea’s security position and diminished its role in regional affairs.
Throughout 2023, warning signs grew more visible. Clashes were reported near the border, alongside accusations that Eritrean forces had crossed into northern Ethiopia.
In early 2024, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed heightened tensions when he stated that Ethiopia must secure “guaranteed access to the sea,” saying the country could not remain landlocked forever.
The comments were met with anger in Eritrea, where leaders viewed them as a threat to national sovereignty.
By March 2025, diplomatic relations had sharply deteriorated. Eritrea reportedly closed its embassy in Addis Ababa, marking a serious breakdown in communication. Ethiopia responded with accusations that Asmara was backing armed groups and undermining stability in the north. This year between June and October, both sides began deploying troops and heavy weapons along the Afar and Tigray borders. Eritrea expanded national service mobilisation, while Ethiopia moved tanks and artillery closer to the frontier. Reports indicated one of the largest military concentrations seen since the end of their last war.
The African Union (AU), based in Addis Ababa, has voiced concern and urged both governments to de-escalate. International partners, including the European Union and the United Nations, have also called for restraint and dialogue to avoid another devastating conflict. Aid agencies warn that renewed fighting would worsen an already dire humanitarian situation, as both countries are still recovering from the Tigray war, which displaced millions and left widespread hunger in its wake.
For now, Eritrea and Ethiopia remain in a tense standoff, each blaming the other for provocation. The coming weeks, and months will determine whether diplomacy can pull the region back from the edge or whether the Horn of Africa is about to face yet another destructive war.
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