Njoki Kangethe
In our last article, we looked at geothermal energy’s promise for Africa; how financing, risks, and opportunities shape this ‘heat beneath our feet.’ If you missed it, you may want to read that first to see why geothermal is a backbone technology for Africa’s energy future.
Today, let’s get concrete. How have countries like Kenya and Ethiopia actually developed geothermal? What can we learn from both the progress and the pitfalls? And which other African nations might be next in line to tap this resource?
Kenya: Africa’s Geothermal Pioneer
Kenya is not just a geothermal leader in Africa; it’s among the global top ten. By 2023, the country was generating over 950 MW from geothermal, making up more than 40% of its total electricity mix (IRENA, 2023). The Olkaria fields near Naivasha have become almost synonymous with Africa’s geothermal potential.
Kenya’s success rests on three key pillars:
1. Political commitment: The government has consistently invested in geothermal since the 1970s, long before it was trendy. The state-owned Geothermal Development Company (GDC) was set up in 2008 specifically to take on exploration risk.
2. International partnerships: Funding and technical expertise from the World Bank, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), and others absorbed the high drilling costs and de-risked early projects.
3. Local expertise: Over time, Kenya invested heavily in training local engineers and geoscientists. Today, KenGen (Kenya Electricity Generating Company) and GDC have in-house capacity to drill and operate wells, reducing dependence on foreign contractors.
Lesson: Long-term commitment, strong institutions, and local capacity building are essential. Without them, geothermal stays stuck at the pilot stage.
Ethiopia: Promise with Delays
Ethiopia sits on immense geothermal resources along its Rift Valley, with potential estimates of 5,000 to 10,000 MW (World Bank, 2021). But unlike Kenya, development has been slower.
The flagship Corbetti and Tulu Moye projects, both private-sector led, have faced years of delays due to financing hurdles, land issues, and political instability. By 2024, only about 7 MW was installed (IRENA, 2023).
Why the gap between potential and reality?
• Financing structures: Ethiopia leaned more on private developers through Independent Power Producer (IPP) models. While this attracts capital, it also introduces long negotiation timelines over tariffs and risk-sharing.
• Institutional capacity: Ethiopia’s energy institutions are newer to geothermal, meaning more reliance on external expertise.
• Political risk: Periods of instability have slowed investor confidence.
Lesson: Geothermal is slow-moving by nature. Without stable policy environments and strong institutions, even resource-rich countries may struggle to deliver results.
Djibouti: Small Country, Big Ambitions
Djibouti is betting big on geothermal. With limited fossil resources and expensive imported energy, it has targeted geothermal as a path to self-sufficiency. Projects at Lake Assal and Fiale Caldera are underway with support from the World Bank and AfDB.
Djibouti’s strategy highlights an important point: for smaller countries, geothermal doesn’t need to mean gigawatts. Even a 50–100 MW plant can transform an entire economy by reducing diesel imports and stabilizing the grid.
Lesson: Scale geothermal to fit national needs. Success isn’t only about size, it’s about impact.
Opportunities Beyond East Africa
While the Rift Valley countries dominate geothermal headlines, opportunities exist elsewhere:
• Rwanda has explored projects in the north but faced technical setbacks when drilling didn’t deliver expected steam.
• Tanzania has mapped multiple sites but progress remains in early stages due to financing hurdles.
• Malawi is piloting exploration around Nkhotakota and Karonga.
These smaller markets illustrate both the promise and the risk: geothermal potential is widespread, but without proper risk-mitigation tools, exploratory failures can be costly.
Risks Revisited: What Case Studies Show
Looking across these examples, a few risks stand out:
• Exploration risk remains the biggest bottleneck. Dry wells or underperforming reservoirs can derail projects.
• Financing structures matter; public investment has worked well in Kenya, while Ethiopia’s heavy reliance on private developers has led to delays.
• Social and environmental issues require careful management. In Kenya’s Rift Valley, communities living near Olkaria have raised concerns over displacement and benefit-sharing.
These risks don’t mean geothermal isn’t worth it. Rather, they highlight the need for deliberate planning and transparent governance.
The Bigger Picture: Lessons for Africa’s Energy Future
So, what do these case studies tell us about Africa’s geothermal future? Three big takeaways:
1. Political will is everything. Without strong state backing, geothermal projects stall. Kenya shows what decades of commitment can achieve.
2. De-risking early stages is critical. Multilateral banks and governments must absorb exploration risks before the private sector can scale.
3. Geothermal works best as part of a mix. It complements solar and wind by providing stable baseload, while renewables cover peak demand and rural electrification.
In other words, geothermal is not a silver bullet, but it can be the backbone that holds Africa’s renewable grids together.
Conclusion
Africa has the heat, the potential, and the urgent need. What’s required now is turning potential into projects. Kenya’s success shows it can be done. Ethiopia’s delays remind us it’s not automatic. Djibouti shows scale can be small but powerful.
As Africa’s energy story unfolds, geothermal will play a critical role, not just in powering homes, but in shaping a model of development that’s clean, sovereign, and resilient.
And as we keep unpacking geothermal in this series, one question lingers: will African leaders treat this resource as a short-term project, or as a long-term pillar for generations to come?
References
• IRENA (2023). Renewable Energy Statistics 2023. International Renewable Energy Agency.
• World Bank (2021). Ethiopia – Geothermal Energy Development Project Overview.
• African Development Bank (AfDB) (2022). Geothermal Development in Africa: Lessons and Opportunities.
• Ministry of Energy, Kenya (2022). Kenya’s Power Generation Mix Report.
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