Faith Nyasuguta
Tensions have flared once more in the volatile Horn of Africa as Eritrea’s long-serving President Isaias Afwerki delivered a stern warning to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed: Ethiopia cannot intimidate or defeat Eritrea, despite its vastly larger population.
Afwerki, who has ruled Eritrea since its independence in 1993, firmly dismissed the notion that Ethiopia’s 130 million citizens would “overwhelm” Eritrea’s 3.5 million population. “If he thinks he can overwhelm (Eritrean forces) with human wave attack, he is mistaken,” Afwerki declared during a televised address broadcast on Eri-TV .
He sharply criticized what he called Ethiopia’s “reckless” attempt to redirect attention from internal political issues. “Before dragging the people of Ethiopia into unwanted wars, the country’s internal problems must be first addressed and solved,” he said.
The underlying trigger for the warning is Ethiopia’s persistent ambition to secure access to a seaport. Landlocked since Eritrea’s independence in 1993, Ethiopia has repeatedly expressed its need for maritime access – though always by peaceful means, according to Abiy. Eritrea sees this push as a direct challenge to its sovereignty .
Despite the 2018 peace accord between the two nations – signed shortly after Abiy assumed office- the fragile dètente unravelled during Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict (2020-2022). Eritrea deployed troops to support Ethiopian forces against TPLF fighters, a move that contributed to the death of approximately 600,000 people, according to the African Union. Though the Pretoria peace deal officially ended the war in 2022, Eritrean troops remain deployed in parts of Tigray, eroding the fragile trust between Asmara and Addis Ababa.
Heightened diplomatic warnings follow a recent NGO report by The Sentry and other monitors, which have accused Eritrea of rearming and destabilizing its neighbors. They claim the country is rebuilding its military following the lifting of international sanctions in 2018 .
Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Ghebremeskel dismissed the allegations as “fabricated,” insisting that Ethiopia’s own seaport ambitions are responsible for escalating regional tensions.
Analysts warn that unresolved border and port access issues – compounded by lingering military deployments and historical mistrust – have left the region on edge. The consequences of armed conflict in Tigray still haunt both nations, with atrocities including widespread looting, human rights abuses, and allegations of ethnic cleansing in Tigray .
Ethiopia’s efforts to gain sea access have also branched into agreements with Somaliland – a move that alarmed Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia.
Currently, Eritrea is sounding a clear alarm: the days of direct military confrontations may be behind them, but the threat of renewed hostilities remains real. Afwerki’s warning is not mere rhetoric – it reflects deeply rooted strategic alarms in Asmara.
As regional powers and international observers await Ethiopia’s next moves, the Horn remains a tinderbox. The world is watching closely to see whether diplomacy can hold fast – or if old rivalries will once again lead to devastation.
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