Faith Nyasuguta
Egypt has once again sounded the alarm over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) just a day after its formal inauguration, calling the $5 billion project a direct threat to its water security. Built on the Blue Nile, the GERD is Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam and is expected to more than double Ethiopia’s power capacity, transforming the region’s energy landscape.
But for Cairo, the dam raises fears of devastating shortages for over 100 million Egyptians who depend almost entirely on the Nile for freshwater.
For Egypt, the Nile is far more than a river – it is its lifeblood. Nearly 95% of the population lives along the Nile Valley and Delta, relying on its waters for drinking, farming, and industry. Officials in Cairo describe the GERD as an “existential threat,” warning that even a modest drop in flow could disrupt food production, economic stability, and daily life. Egyptian leaders say Ethiopia moved ahead with filling the dam’s massive reservoir without a legally binding agreement or proper consultation, violating long-standing international treaties.
These treaties, such as the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement, granted Egypt and Sudan a dominant share of the river’s flow. Egypt’s Foreign Ministry maintains that the GERD threatens not only water supplies but also national security. “A major drop in supply threatens Egypt’s internal stability. The stakes are economic, political, and deeply social,” said Mohamed Mohey el-Deen, formerly on Egypt’s assessment team.
President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has repeatedly pledged to defend Egypt’s rights to the Nile and has taken the issue to the UN Security Council and the Arab League.
Despite more than a decade of negotiations mediated by the United States, Russia, the UAE, and the African Union, no breakthrough has been reached on how the dam should be filled and operated. Egypt continues to insist on firm guarantees that its water supply will not be harmed, while Ethiopia emphasizes its sovereign right to develop its resources and lift millions out of poverty.
For Ethiopia, the GERD is a symbol of national pride and independence. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has stressed that the project is designed to benefit, not harm, downstream nations. By doubling Ethiopia’s power capacity, Addis Ababa hopes to electrify industries, create jobs, and export power to neighbours such as Kenya, South Sudan, and Tanzania. Ethiopia also highlights that over 90% of the project’s funding came from its own citizens, demonstrating national ownership and resolve.
The stakes could not be higher. The Blue Nile contributes about 85% of the water flowing into the larger Nile River, which sustains more than 250 million people across 11 countries. For Egypt, the GERD represents a looming challenge to survival. For Ethiopia, it offers a once-in-a-generation chance to transform its economy.
The dam thus sits at the crossroads of development and security – capable of powering growth and regional cooperation if managed wisely, or of fuelling one of Africa’s most enduring geopolitical flashpoints if mistrust prevails.
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