Wayne Lumbasi
The United Nations has warned that Al Shabab remains one of the most dangerous security threats in the Horn of Africa, continuing to destabilize Somalia while posing a persistent risk to neighbouring Kenya.
In its latest assessment, a UN panel of experts said the militant group has shown resilience despite sustained military pressure, retaining the ability to plan and carry out sophisticated attacks against government institutions, security forces and civilians across the region. In Somalia, Al Shabab continues to undermine fragile state institutions through frequent bombings, targeted assassinations and complex assaults, particularly in Mogadishu and other strategic towns.
The group has maintained influence in parts of central and southern Somalia, using intimidation, extortion and forced recruitment to sustain its operations. UN experts noted that even when pushed out of territory, the group adapts quickly, exploiting governance gaps and local grievances to reassert itself and disrupt stabilization efforts.
The threat extends beyond Somalia’s borders, with Kenya remaining a key target. According to the UN report, Al Shabab has continued to stage attacks inside Kenya, especially in border counties such as Mandera and Lamu. These incidents include roadside bombings, raids on security posts, kidnappings and attacks on civilians, aimed at spreading fear and straining Kenya’s security resources.
The experts warned that the group’s cross border operations demonstrate its intent to internationalize the conflict and punish countries supporting Somalia’s fight against extremism.
The UN assessment also highlighted Al Shabab’s long term objective of overthrowing the Somali government, expelling foreign forces and establishing an Islamist state that would encompass parts of the wider region. This ambition, combined with steady funding streams and effective propaganda, continues to make the group a formidable adversary despite years of counterterrorism efforts in response to the ongoing threat, the United Nations Security Council has extended the mandate of the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia, underscoring international concern that any security vacuum could be swiftly exploited by the militants.
However, the UN cautioned that military action alone will not be enough, stressing the need for political stability, economic development and stronger local governance to weaken Al Shabab’s appeal and prevent further regional spillover.
The warning serves as a stark reminder that while progress has been made, Al Shabab remains a potent force capable of destabilizing both Somalia and Kenya, keeping the Horn of Africa on high alert as regional and international actors seek lasting solutions to the conflict.
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